Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, March 2nd

Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat with little to drive trading. Even stocks are mixed but calm with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (1.42%). We saw some volatility late yesterday, causing some lenders to revise pricing higher before improving them as mortgage bonds rallied at the end of the day. The net result should be this morning’s rates being very close to Monday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 1.42%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Bond Trends

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. Afternoon volatility seems to be a requirement these days, so don’t be surprised to see some movement later today. The important question is, which direction will they go?



ADP Employment

Tomorrow has an early morning report and an afternoon release that we will be watching. The first comes at 8:15 AM ET from payroll processor ADP who will announce their monthly private-sector employment estimate. Since it is not a government agency report, it isn't considered to be highly important. However, as with any employment-related data, it does draw some attention. This is especially true for this report because it is posted just a couple days before monthly employment figures are released by the Labor Department. I personally believe it is given more attention than it deserves, particularly because many rely on it to predict the monthly government figures, often without success. Still, if it shows a noticeable variance from expectations, it will likely cause movement in the markets and mortgage rates. Forecasts are calling for it to show 150,000 new private-sector payrolls.



Fed Beige Book

The Fed Beige Book is the afternoon release. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region via business contacts. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction following the 2:00 PM ET release. It usually does not cause a major move in the markets or mortgage rates. If we see a reaction, it will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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Carter Financial Solutions

2291 W. March Ln Suite A100
Stockton, CA 95207